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Thursday, Apr 03, 2025

Concerns Grow in Australia Over Trump’s Presidency and Its Impact on the US Alliance

Concerns Grow in Australia Over Trump’s Presidency and Its Impact on the US Alliance

A significant shift in public opinion reveals heightened fears regarding the reliability of the United States as an ally under Trump's leadership.
Recent data indicates an increasing level of concern among Australians regarding the implications of Donald Trump's presidency.

According to a survey conducted by Resolve Strategic, 60 percent of respondents believe Trump's election has adversely affected Australia, a noticeable rise from 40 percent reported in November prior to his election.

As tensions with China escalate, and amidst impending US tariffs, experts are voicing doubts about America's reliability as an ally.

Former diplomats and Defence officials have suggested that Australia should consider bolstering its self-defensive capabilities in light of potential shifts in the US-Australia-New Zealand Security Treaty (ANZUS) alliance, especially following Trump's critical remarks towards Canada.

Political leaders, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, faced scrutiny regarding Australia’s response to Chinese military movements, particularly after a Chinese vessel transited through Bass Strait.

The survey revealed that 46 percent of Australians advocate for closer relations with other countries, including China, in response to Trump's foreign policy actions.

However, opinions regarding key international agreements vary.

While only 34 percent of voters support pausing or withdrawing from the AUKUS pact—an alliance with the US and the UK focusing on nuclear-powered submarines—50 percent of respondents indicate a desire for Australia to remain neutral in conflicts between the US and China.

In terms of perceived threats, 17 percent of voters identified the US as the largest threat to Australia, while 31 percent cited China and a mere 4 percent named Russia.

As the country approaches national elections, both Albanese and Dutton have reinforced their support for the US alliance.

At a recent forum led by former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, concerns were expressed regarding a fundamental shift in international relations under Trump, warning that the established rules-based order may be dismantled.

Former foreign affairs official Heather Smith remarked that the current political environment demands stronger economic and defence strategies to safeguard Australia's interests.

Dennis Richardson, former chief of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), emphasized the necessity of maintaining cooperation with an increasingly unpredictable United States, given the strategic significance of the AUKUS agreement, which includes the acquisition of Virginia-class submarines and the construction of new vessels in collaboration with the UK.

Hugh White, a professor at the Australian National University, critiqued the likelihood of US victory in a potential conflict with China and urged Australia to avoid aligning militarily with the US in such scenarios, stating that the US appears unlikely to engage in a war in the Asia-Pacific region.

Turnbull, who has expressed skepticism regarding the AUKUS pact, highlighted the need for recalibration in strategic thinking amidst growing dependency on the US at a time when its reliability is in question.

Former submarine commander Rear Admiral Peter Clarke stressed that Australia must fully commit to the AUKUS partnership, despite concerns over potential US changes to submarine deliveries.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1,621 eligible voters between Wednesday and Saturday, amid a broader inquiry into voting intentions ahead of the upcoming election.

The survey sought to assess voter sentiment on the US alliance, following a similar question posed immediately after the election in November.

The latest findings show that 70 percent of Labor voters perceive the Trump administration negatively, while 49 percent of Coalition voters echoed similar sentiments.

On a separate inquiry, 31 percent of voters believe that Dutton and the Coalition are better positioned to navigate relations with Trump compared to Albanese and the Labor Party.

As the Trump administration prepares to impose new tariffs, stock markets reacted negatively, with the ASX200 declining by 1.5 percent, translating to an approximate loss of $35 billion in market capitalization.

Economists from Goldman Sachs have raised the likelihood of a US recession to 35 percent, attributing this to potential negative impacts on American consumers and businesses resulting from the tariffs.

Concurrently, gold prices have surged, reaching $3,100 per ounce due to inflationary pressures linked to the anticipated tariffs.
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