Victorian Labor Faces Significant Decline in Public Support, Poll Reveals
New poll indicates Victorian Labor's primary vote has dropped to a historic low as effect of leadership change is observed.
The Victorian Labor government, currently led by Premier Allan, is experiencing a significant decline in public support, according to a recent poll.
The Resolve Political Monitor survey indicates that Labor's primary vote has fallen to 22 percent, a decrease of six percentage points over the past two months.
This drop marks a historic low for the party, which has enjoyed 12 consecutive years in power in Victoria.
The implications of these findings are notable as the state prepares for its next election cycle.
Should these polling figures be mirrored in the next state election, it could result in a shift of power to the Coalition, which would form a government in Victoria for only the second time in this century.
The poll also highlights strategic challenges for the Labor Party ahead of the upcoming byelection in Werribee, a seat traditionally considered a stronghold for the party.
The Victorian and federal governments recently announced a $333.5 million investment for road upgrades in the Werribee area, aiming to address local traffic concerns.
Conducted for _The Age_, the survey examined voter sentiment across two waves in December and January.
Since the state election in November 2022, when former Premier Daniel Andrews secured a decisive victory for Labor, one-third of previous Labor voters have either aligned with the Coalition or moved to support other parties, including the Greens and independents.
The Coalition's primary vote has risen to 42 percent, showing an increase of over seven percentage points since the previous election.
However, the Resolve Political Monitor does not include a two-party preferred figure due to complexities in predicting future preference allocations.
Based on historical preference flows, the current figures would result in a split favoring the Coalition at 55.5 percent.
Recent political developments include a leadership transition within the opposition, where John Pesutto was replaced by Brad Battin as the Liberal leader.
According to the poll, Battin has already gained traction, leading Allan as the preferred premier by a margin of ten points.
The poll’s timing was strategic, coinciding with the stepping down of former treasurer Tim Pallas and increased scrutiny over the state's fiscal management.
The survey was conducted amidst vigorous political movements in the opposition, including the resolution of Moira Deeming's defamation case, which affected the Liberal faction dynamics.
Jim Reed, director of Resolve, noted a shifting voter base since Andrew's departure in September 2023, linking the latest decline in support for Allan's leadership to unmet public expectations.
Political observers remain cautious, acknowledging that the next state election is not imminent, and public interest in political affairs may not be at its peak during the surveyed months.
Looking ahead, the Werribee byelection, scheduled for February 8, will be a critical measure of current political sentiment in Victoria.
The contest arises from Pallas's resignation, creating an opportunity for Battin and several independent candidates to challenge Labor's nearly 11 percent margin from the last election.
The associated infrastructure funding aims to improve local traffic conditions, a focal point in the election discourse.
The Resolve Political Monitor survey indicates that Labor's primary vote has fallen to 22 percent, a decrease of six percentage points over the past two months.
This drop marks a historic low for the party, which has enjoyed 12 consecutive years in power in Victoria.
The implications of these findings are notable as the state prepares for its next election cycle.
Should these polling figures be mirrored in the next state election, it could result in a shift of power to the Coalition, which would form a government in Victoria for only the second time in this century.
The poll also highlights strategic challenges for the Labor Party ahead of the upcoming byelection in Werribee, a seat traditionally considered a stronghold for the party.
The Victorian and federal governments recently announced a $333.5 million investment for road upgrades in the Werribee area, aiming to address local traffic concerns.
Conducted for _The Age_, the survey examined voter sentiment across two waves in December and January.
Since the state election in November 2022, when former Premier Daniel Andrews secured a decisive victory for Labor, one-third of previous Labor voters have either aligned with the Coalition or moved to support other parties, including the Greens and independents.
The Coalition's primary vote has risen to 42 percent, showing an increase of over seven percentage points since the previous election.
However, the Resolve Political Monitor does not include a two-party preferred figure due to complexities in predicting future preference allocations.
Based on historical preference flows, the current figures would result in a split favoring the Coalition at 55.5 percent.
Recent political developments include a leadership transition within the opposition, where John Pesutto was replaced by Brad Battin as the Liberal leader.
According to the poll, Battin has already gained traction, leading Allan as the preferred premier by a margin of ten points.
The poll’s timing was strategic, coinciding with the stepping down of former treasurer Tim Pallas and increased scrutiny over the state's fiscal management.
The survey was conducted amidst vigorous political movements in the opposition, including the resolution of Moira Deeming's defamation case, which affected the Liberal faction dynamics.
Jim Reed, director of Resolve, noted a shifting voter base since Andrew's departure in September 2023, linking the latest decline in support for Allan's leadership to unmet public expectations.
Political observers remain cautious, acknowledging that the next state election is not imminent, and public interest in political affairs may not be at its peak during the surveyed months.
Looking ahead, the Werribee byelection, scheduled for February 8, will be a critical measure of current political sentiment in Victoria.
The contest arises from Pallas's resignation, creating an opportunity for Battin and several independent candidates to challenge Labor's nearly 11 percent margin from the last election.
The associated infrastructure funding aims to improve local traffic conditions, a focal point in the election discourse.
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