Australia's Spring Weather Shifts as La Niña Forms Amid Antarctic Stratospheric Warming
After a hot, dry start, two variable cloudbands and a developing La Niña may bring relief across central and eastern Australia
Much of eastern and northern Australia has endured one of its hottest Octobers on record.
The predicted wetter-than-normal spring failed to materialise at first, as a rare Antarctic stratospheric warming event in September altered the expected weather patterns.
The sharp rise in upper-atmosphere temperatures above Antarctica disrupted the usual jet-stream flow, favouring hot and dry conditions for large parts of New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Now, meteorologists see a recovery under way.
Two broad moisture-laden cloudbands are expected to carry rainfall across large portions of the country over the next week.
The first band has formed in the western interior and will sweep through South Australia on Saturday before reaching Victoria and western New South Wales on Sunday, with averages of 10-20 mm and local highs of up to 40 mm.
The second band will begin Monday over central Northern Territory and tropical Queensland, advancing to south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales by Tuesday, where rainfall of 20-50 mm and thunderstorm risk are flagged.
Looking ahead, the climate picture is tilting in favour of a wetter November.
A developing La Niña – the cool-phase counterpart of El Niño – alongside a well-established negative Indian Ocean Dipole and warm surrounding sea-surface temperatures, increases the chance of above-median rainfall across much of the eastern mainland, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
The national climate authority’s three-month outlook places the probability of above-median rain between 60 % and 80 % for many regions.
Despite this improved outlook, the wet signal may not last.
Research and models suggest that the stratospheric warming event may linger into early next year, damping the influence of La Niña beyond December.
As daily temperatures continue to sit at elevated levels due to global warming, Australia may see one of its hottest summers on record even if rainfall increases in spring.
The competing influences of Antarctic dynamics, Pacific and Indian-Ocean drivers, and long-term climate change mean the next few months remain critical for water-resources managers and fire-risk planners.
The predicted wetter-than-normal spring failed to materialise at first, as a rare Antarctic stratospheric warming event in September altered the expected weather patterns.
The sharp rise in upper-atmosphere temperatures above Antarctica disrupted the usual jet-stream flow, favouring hot and dry conditions for large parts of New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Now, meteorologists see a recovery under way.
Two broad moisture-laden cloudbands are expected to carry rainfall across large portions of the country over the next week.
The first band has formed in the western interior and will sweep through South Australia on Saturday before reaching Victoria and western New South Wales on Sunday, with averages of 10-20 mm and local highs of up to 40 mm.
The second band will begin Monday over central Northern Territory and tropical Queensland, advancing to south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales by Tuesday, where rainfall of 20-50 mm and thunderstorm risk are flagged.
Looking ahead, the climate picture is tilting in favour of a wetter November.
A developing La Niña – the cool-phase counterpart of El Niño – alongside a well-established negative Indian Ocean Dipole and warm surrounding sea-surface temperatures, increases the chance of above-median rainfall across much of the eastern mainland, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
The national climate authority’s three-month outlook places the probability of above-median rain between 60 % and 80 % for many regions.
Despite this improved outlook, the wet signal may not last.
Research and models suggest that the stratospheric warming event may linger into early next year, damping the influence of La Niña beyond December.
As daily temperatures continue to sit at elevated levels due to global warming, Australia may see one of its hottest summers on record even if rainfall increases in spring.
The competing influences of Antarctic dynamics, Pacific and Indian-Ocean drivers, and long-term climate change mean the next few months remain critical for water-resources managers and fire-risk planners.
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