Australia’s central bank is almost certain to keep its policy rate at 3.60 per cent when it meets on November 3–4, according to a Reuters poll of 34 economists, citing a recent jump in inflation and broader upside risks.

The poll found that every respondent expects no change at the meeting, and only a single rate cut is now priced in by mid-2026.

Consumer-price inflation rose 3.2 per cent in the September quarter, above the central bank’s 2–3 per cent target band, while its preferred core measure climbed about 1.0 per cent in the quarter—well above forecasts.

The increase has raised concern that financial conditions are loosening and may reignite inflation pressures.

Governor Michele Bullock has emphasised that while unemployment ticked higher to 4.5 per cent, the labour market remains resilient and the board remains focused on inflation risks.

She noted that recent signs of rising credit and house-price growth suggest policy may no longer be restrictive enough, and that the board must judge “whether there is further easing to come or not”.

Markets have sharply scaled back expectations for a November reduction—probability now sits in the low double digits—and only moderate odds of a move in December.

The revised outlook underlines how a stronger-than-expected inflation backdrop has delayed the start of the easing phase, leaving some households and borrowers waiting longer for relief.

The central bank’s decision will be accompanied by updated economic forecasts and a fresh statement of policy.

While the board is expected to reaffirm its flexibility and not rule out future cuts, investors will watch carefully for any shift in language that signals a more extended holding pattern or a later-than-expected easing cycle.

The next meaningful data release will be late-October inflation figures, which may determine whether the first cut is postponed into 2026.