Australia stands at a strategic crossroads where the lessons emerging from Europe’s decade of underinvestment in defence resonate with increasing urgency for Canberra.

Europe’s postponement of robust defence spending in the years preceding Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine highlighted the risks of relying excessively on a single security guarantor and failing to cultivate sufficient military capability.

That experience is now being held up as a cautionary tale for Australia as it navigates intensifying geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific and debates over future defence priorities.

A key point underscored in the editorial is that Australia’s defence funding discussions have been increasingly shaped by pressure from Washington for Canberra to lift its defence budget, with United States President Donald Trump among those urging greater investment.

China’s ambassador to Australia has also admonished Canberra against emulating Western defence spending patterns.

The editorial argues that had Australia already invested in crucial capabilities, much of the current debate might be unnecessary.

Europe’s delayed response to its own threats serves as a warning that failure to act early can lead to capability gaps that are costly to redress.

For Australia, the stakes are framed around potential flashpoints including tensions across the Taiwan Strait and disputes in the South China Sea, where strengthened defence capabilities could serve as a deterrent and reduce the probability of crisis escalation.

The government has maintained that defence spending is rising, but the piece suggests that global conflict dynamics and the emergence of critical technologies now in active use in theatres of conflict may accelerate the need for even higher investment.

While Canberra has sought to stabilise economic ties with Beijing, the editorial stresses that economic engagement has not historically mitigated strategic risk, drawing parallels with Europe’s experience of persistent Russian assertiveness despite deep trade links.

This evolving discussion about Australia’s defence posture is occurring alongside broader moves to bolster security cooperation with like-minded partners, including the launch of negotiations with the European Union on a security and defence partnership to deepen collaboration on industry, cyber security and counter-terrorism.

The broader argument advanced in the piece is that Australia can avoid repeating Europe’s mistakes by strengthening its defence capabilities now, thereby enhancing deterrence and safeguarding national and regional stability in an era of shifting power balances.