A pronounced wave of populist political energy is gaining momentum across Australia, upending traditional party support patterns and reshaping debate ahead of pivotal state elections.

This shift is evident in the unprecedented rise of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party, which in multiple recent polls has surpassed or closely rivalled the centre-right Liberal-National Coalition’s support — an outcome that would have been extraordinary in the nation’s post-war political landscape.

Current polling averages suggest that One Nation’s primary vote has climbed into the mid-twenties nationally, with some figures placing it ahead of the Coalition as primary choice for voters, a historic first for an Australian party outside Labor and the Coalition duopoly.

This surge follows heightened public concern over issues such as immigration, cost of living pressures and political disenchantment, sentiments that One Nation has channelled into broader populist messaging.

The party’s increased support was further underscored in state polling in South Australia where it stands ahead of the Liberals, intensifying pressure on both major parties as the March election approaches.

Federal leaders have responded to this phenomenon in contrasting tones: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has publicly criticised divisive rhetoric targeting religious communities, while opposition figures grapple with how to address the shifting landscape that has seen conservative voters drift toward populist alternatives.

Within the broader political discourse, analysts observe that Australia’s political crossroads reflect trends seen in other advanced democracies, where populist movements leverage voter frustration to challenge established elites.

Yet the populist moment in Australia carries particular nuances — including debates over social cohesion in the aftermath of national tragedies, and the country’s unique electoral and party structures.

As One Nation’s standing continues to evolve, and new movements emerge on the political right, the immediate electoral impact and long-term ramifications for Australia’s major parties remain subjects of intense scrutiny.

The populist upsurge has already forced established political leaders to recalibrate strategies and messaging in an environment where traditional allegiances appear increasingly fluid.