Almost half of Australians believe a foreign military could attack the country within the next five years, according to a major new study that highlights growing public concern over national security.

The research, conducted over more than a year and drawing on responses from over twenty thousand participants, found that around forty-five percent of Australians consider a direct military attack to be likely or possible in the near term.

While such an event ranked lower in probability compared to other threats, it was viewed as having among the most severe potential consequences, with many respondents describing it as potentially catastrophic.

The findings form part of a broader surge in national security anxiety, with approximately two-thirds of respondents reporting concern about the country’s safety.

The increase has been particularly pronounced among younger Australians, where concern levels have more than doubled in recent surveys.

Beyond the prospect of direct military conflict, Australians expressed heightened concern over a wide range of emerging risks.

These include artificial intelligence-enabled attacks, disinformation campaigns, foreign interference, economic instability, and disruptions to critical supply chains.

A significant majority of respondents indicated that many of these threats are likely to materialise within the next decade.

The possibility of Australia becoming involved in an overseas conflict was also widely anticipated, with a strong majority viewing such a scenario as probable within five years.

Concerns about domestic terrorism have intensified as well, with a sharp increase in the number of people identifying it as a serious risk following recent incidents.

Despite these concerns, many Australians expressed doubts about the country’s preparedness.

More than half of those surveyed believe Australia is only slightly prepared or not prepared at all to respond to major crises, including military threats, infrastructure attacks, or severe economic disruptions.

The study’s release comes against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and shifting global dynamics, which appear to be shaping public perceptions of risk.

Analysts note that Australians are increasingly aware of the interconnected nature of modern security challenges, where traditional military threats intersect with technological, economic, and environmental pressures.

The findings suggest a growing expectation among the public for greater transparency and engagement from government on national security issues, as well as a broader conversation about how the country can strengthen its resilience in an increasingly uncertain world.