A new geospatial modelling study has identified northern Australia as the most likely gateway for the introduction of lumpy skin disease, a cattle virus that could severely disrupt the country’s livestock industry if it breached national biosecurity defences.

Researchers developed an advanced mapping model designed to estimate where insect carriers of the virus could enter the country through environmental and maritime pathways.

The analysis highlights two areas in particular: the Port Hedland and Dampier region in Western Australia, and the northern tip of Queensland’s Cape York Peninsula.

The study found that ports in north-west Western Australia present the highest risk for insects carrying the virus to arrive aboard commercial ships travelling from countries where outbreaks are present.

Meanwhile, Cape York was identified as especially vulnerable to insects transported long distances by wind currents from neighbouring regions during the summer months.

Lumpy skin disease is a viral infection that affects cattle and buffalo and is spread primarily through biting insects such as mosquitoes, flies and ticks.

The disease causes fever and distinctive nodules across the skin of infected animals, reducing milk production, damaging meat yields and sometimes causing infertility.

Although mortality rates are generally low, outbreaks can inflict substantial economic losses across livestock industries.

Australia remains free of the disease, but its spread through parts of Asia in recent years has heightened concern among agricultural authorities and livestock producers.

Cases have been detected in nearby countries including Indonesia, increasing the perceived risk of an eventual incursion into northern Australia.

The modelling integrates environmental data, shipping traffic patterns and information about insect vectors capable of transmitting the virus.

By simulating how infected insects might travel via cargo vessels or be carried by seasonal wind systems, the researchers produced maps showing where surveillance and preparedness efforts could be most effective.

According to the findings, a combined analysis of both pathways consistently pointed to two high-risk zones: the northern tip of Queensland and port regions around Port Hedland in Western Australia.

These areas lie closest to countries where the virus has circulated and also experience environmental conditions that could support insect survival.

Researchers emphasised that the modelling framework is designed to evolve as new information becomes available.

The system can incorporate updated data on disease outbreaks, climate conditions and insect populations to refine predictions and help authorities adapt their surveillance strategies.

The work forms part of broader efforts to strengthen Australia’s biosecurity preparedness for emerging livestock diseases.

A confirmed outbreak could lead to immediate trade restrictions on cattle, meat and dairy exports, potentially affecting an industry worth billions of dollars to the national economy.

By identifying the most likely entry points, scientists and policymakers aim to concentrate monitoring, early detection and response resources in the areas where an incursion would most likely occur, increasing the chances of containing the virus before it spreads through the national herd.