Australia’s traditionally strong alliance with the United States is facing a period of strain as public confidence in the reliability of Washington under President Donald Trump’s second term erodes, according to recent polling and expert commentary.

Trust among Australians that the United States will act responsibly on the world stage has dropped significantly since Trump returned to the White House in 2025, with many citizens increasingly sceptical of America’s global leadership and alignment with Australian values and strategic interests.

This shift in sentiment reflects concerns over policy unpredictability, unilateral actions and perceived disengagement from international norms, factors that have fuelled a broader discussion about Canberra’s strategic priorities and the future of its most consequential alliance.

Polling data reveals that confidence in the United States to ‘do the right thing’ has fallen sharply, with a substantial majority of Australians expressing little faith in President Trump’s leadership, while surveys also indicate that only a minority believe Australia and the U.S. now share common values.

Despite these attitudes, many analysts emphasise that Australians still recognise the alliance’s importance for national security in a complex Indo-Pacific environment.

Strategic thinkers argue that the relationship remains vital for deterrence and defence cooperation, even as public trust diminishes.

The drop in trust has coincided with public debate over the nature of American power, its role in regional security and the extent to which Canberra should hedge its foreign policy by strengthening ties with other partners.

Senior Australian commentators and former policymakers have weighed in on whether the alliance could fracture entirely, cautioning that a rupture would depend on sustained divergence in strategic outlooks and values rather than transient political differences.

They advocate for a nuanced approach in which Australia bolsters its self-reliance, deepens regional partnerships and continues to engage with the United States while making clear its own security priorities.

The voluntary nature of the alliance means that both nations must maintain mutual confidence and shared strategic goals to ensure its durability.

As Canberra grapples with these emerging tensions, government leaders have stressed continuity in defence cooperation, even as they contend with domestic debate about the evolving U.S. role in global and regional affairs.